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nuggets of financial self-defence
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Zaktualizowano: 2 dni 2 godziny temu

Hillary Leaks Show Clinton Campaign and DNC Incite Violence at Trump Rallies: Will It Matter?

śr., 19/10/2016 - 03:06

A Project Veritas Action video on the Clinton campaign has gone viral. It documents violence at Trump rallies, traced back to the Clinton campaign.

In the video, Scott Foval, the National Field Director of Americans United for Change, bragged about paying homeless and mentally ill individuals to cause disruptions at Trump events via a process called birddogging.

People have asked me to comment.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Cass Freight Index Takes Another Dive Killing August’s “False Hope”

wt., 18/10/2016 - 21:22

Heading into the Christmas shopping season, the Cass Freight Index shows shipments sank 0.4% for the month and are down 3.1% from shipments a year ago.

It’s difficult to make a case for a great holiday sales season or robust third quarter GDP, based not only on shipments, but also on many other factors discussed below.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Bloomberg Cheers Rising Rent and Gas Prices: Parrots vs. Humans

wt., 18/10/2016 - 19:40

The BLS reported the CPI Rose 0.3% for the month, most of which stems from energy and owners equivalent rent.

The BLS also noted the indexes for prescription drugs were incorrect as published for May 2016 through August 2016. This affected the U.S. All Items Index back through May. Corrections have been loaded to the databases.

The 0.3% rise for the month, matched the Econoday Consensus.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Brexit Framework: Winners and Losers

wt., 18/10/2016 - 10:34

UK prime minister Theresa May hopes the EU will come to its senses and negotiate a fair Brexit settlement.

Unfortunately, current rhetoric suggests a “hard brexit” is the most likely scenario.

If so, who are the winners and losers?


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

What’s the Biggest Protest Vote Now: Johnson? Trump? Someone Else?

wt., 18/10/2016 - 03:09

On October 11, I penned Trump Destroyed Trump, Not the Media: “This Election is Over”.

I took a lot of flack for that post. Several readers emailed, asking me to reconsider my switch to Johnson. Many still think Trump has a chance. Some accused me of believing all the sex scandal accusations.

The latter group is wrong. I did not believe the accusations because I did not even see them. I tuned the election out after the first debate. I decided at that time Trump blew it, and I was mad as hell at Trump because he could have won.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Favorability Ratings: Clinton vs. Trump, Hollande vs. Le Pen vs. Sarkozy

pon., 17/10/2016 - 22:11

The favorability ratings of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are the worst ever in US politics. However, those ratings pale in comparison to the negativity in French politics.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Empire State Kicks Off Regional Manufacturing Reports With Dismal Showing: Spotlight on Look-Ahead Sentiment

pon., 17/10/2016 - 20:17

The Empire State manufacturing survey is the first in the series of monthly reports from the Fed regions.

This survey picked up where it last left off, in the red, but deeper.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Industrial Production Disappoints Again; Gaming the Effect on GDP Estimates

pon., 17/10/2016 - 18:29

Industrial production rose 0.1% in September vs. a Bloomberg Econoday Consensus of +0.2%. Manufacturing rose 0.2% vs. a consensus of 0.1%.

However, the Fed revised August production and August Manufacturing from -0.4% to -0.5%, effectively negating the meager rise in total production.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

US Deficit at $590 Billion but Debt Up $1.2 trillion: Sleight of Hand Magic

pon., 17/10/2016 - 16:30

The US deficit is up $590 billion so one might think total US debt would rise by that amount or at least something close to that amount.

Instead, total US debt for the fiscal year that just closed soared by over $1.2 trillion. What’s going on?


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Dallas Police Retiring in Droves, Taking Lump Sum Pensions, Fearing the Money Isn’t There (And It Isn’t)

pon., 17/10/2016 - 06:46

The Dallas police and firefighters pension fund has just 45% of the money it needs to cover benefits. The fund rates to be out of money in 15 years at the current rate of withdrawals.

For those eligible, the sane thing to do is retire and take a lump sum payout before the money is all gone.

That’s precisely what’s happening, and it is further pressuring the system.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Italy Bank Merger Largest Since 2007: Banco Popolare, Banca Pop di Milano (Deal Solves Nothing)

nie., 16/10/2016 - 18:46

The idea you can take two under-capitalized banks, both seriously in trouble with non-performing loans, merge them, and come out with a much better bank is ridiculous, but that is the route Italy seeks.

Banco Popolare CEO Pier Francesco Saviotti and Popolare di Milano CEO Giuseppe Castagna agreed on a merger plan in February. Shareholders approved the deal this weekend.

Castagna will oversee the combined company, while Saviotti will become chairman of the executive committee. The new bank will be called Banco BPM.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Tech Boom Downside: Not Enough Jobs?

nie., 16/10/2016 - 04:48

The Wall Street Journal says there is a “great unraveling” to America’s Dazzling Tech Boom: Not Enough Jobs. Let’s investigate.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Deeper and Deeper in the Hole: Treasury Receipts Up 1%, Spending Up 5%

sob., 15/10/2016 - 18:04

For the first time since 2009, US Deficit Spending On the Rise.

Importantly, receipts are up only 1%, but government spending is up 5%.

The deficit does not count “off budget” items like Social Security and student debt, but let’s take a look at what they do count.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Too Late to Worry: Fed Way Late to Rate Hike Party

sob., 15/10/2016 - 02:44

Golden Opportunity to Hike in 2014

The Fed had a golden opportunity to hike in 2014.

2nd quarter GDP rose at 4.0% annualized, 3rd quarter rose at 5.0% annualized, and 4th quarter rose at 2.3% annualized.

Instead the Fed was worried about growth, when growth was fine. Where the heck were the dissents for hikes in 2014?


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Rate Hike Odds Rise Again: Fed Concerned About Corporate Leverage

pt., 14/10/2016 - 21:59

Despite anemic GDP forecasts for third and fourth quarter, the Fed appears to have convinced the market that it will finally hike rates in December.

Odds of at least one hike hit 69.2% today, up from 65.1% yesterday. Is something on the Fed’s mind?


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 1.9%, Nowcast Rises Slightly to 2.3%

pt., 14/10/2016 - 20:46

It was not at all obvious how today’s allegedly “solid” retail sales report would affect third quarter GDP estimates. As I have pointed out before, good reports do not necessarily translate that way. It all depends on what the models expected.

The FRBNY Nowcast expected a weaker retail sales report boosting its GDP estimate slightly.

However, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model expected a better retail report and its GDP forecast ticked lower.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Retail Sales Rise 0.6% In Line With Consensus

pt., 14/10/2016 - 15:18

Retail sales rose 0.6% matching the Bloomberg Econoday Consensus estimates. This was a pretty solid jump but it was widely expected.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

French MEPs Introduce “You-Tube Tax” to Maintain “Virtuous Circle of Financing Creation”

pt., 14/10/2016 - 05:20

French MEPs (Members of European Parliament) introduced a proposal to create a “virtuous circle of financing creation” via a “You-Tube Tax” on online advertising.

My counter proposal is a high tax on politicians, political activities, and of course socialists.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

European Council President Promises Salt and Vinegar for Everyone

pt., 14/10/2016 - 02:51

EU fools would rather everyone, themselves included,  eat salt and drink vinegar than negotiate a reasonable Brexit agreement with the UK.

European Council chief, Donald Tusk is the fool of the day.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Import and Export Prices Tick Up, Econoday Robot Claims Progress

czw., 13/10/2016 - 15:55

Import prices are up 0.1% matching the Econoday Consensus estimate in an unusually wide range of estimates from  -0.3% to +0.4%.

Export prices rose 0.3% vs.a consensus 0.1%. This may boost third quarter GDP estimate slightly.


Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy


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