Jak odnieść sukces inwestując w aktywa materialne, z dala od tłumów, mediów i zgiełku.
nuggets of financial self-defence
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Zaktualizowano: 19 godzin 10 min. temu

Bitcoin “Probably Worth Zero”

pon., 25/09/2017 - 07:41

What’s Bitcoin worth?

At this moment on September 27, 2015, it’s worth $3,786.50.

Yet, Wall Street Journal writer James Mackintosh says Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Shows The Truth: It Is Probably Worth Zero.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Merkel Wins But Grand Coalition Loses: Major Parties Suffer Worst-Ever Results, AfD Solidly in 3rd Place

pon., 25/09/2017 - 01:25

Angela Merkel won her fourth term but the results were not pretty either for Merkel’s CDU/CSU party or SPD, her Grand Coalition partner following the last election.

Support for major parties nose-dived and the Eurosceptic AfD party is now the third largest party in Germany.

Rather than enter another Grand Coalition, SPD has indicated it will go into opposition.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Another Look at Capital Flight in Italy and Spain: ECB’s Target2 Explanation is False

nie., 24/09/2017 - 19:07

The ECB claims that Target2 does not represent capital flight. Evidence says the ECB is wrong, especially for Italy and Spain.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Catalonia Police Reject Madrid Orders: Barring Invasion, the Vote Will Take Place

nie., 24/09/2017 - 03:35

Barring a mass invasion by Spanish government troops, it appears the vote in Catalonia will take place.

Given the importance of the story, Western media is amazingly silent. Stories are few and far between.

We have not even see Tweet 1 from President Trump. Let’s take a look at the latest news and Tweets that I can find.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Puerto Rico Dam Failing: 70,000 Threatened Some Stranded

sob., 23/09/2017 - 18:40

Hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico has no power and no gas. It also has crumbling infrastructure and near-worthless utility bonds following bankruptcy.

Today it faces another disaster: The 90-year old Guajataca River dam is failing in the wake of 15 inches of rain from Hurricane Maria.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Trump Wants a “See-Through Wall”: He Will Choose the Design Personally

sob., 23/09/2017 - 08:45

Trump wants a “great wall” on the US-Mexican border that Mexico will pay for.

A new wrinkle is the wall must be see-through so we can see who is on the other side.

Trump will personally select the design.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Stock Market “Crash” Unlikely: It’s the Debt, Stupid

pt., 22/09/2017 - 21:06

Many people have been predicting another stock market “crash”. I have not been in that camp for reasons I will explain below.

Yet, I believe the stock market is at least 50% overvalued, and a 40% to 60% “net” decline is coming.

My view is the decline will be slow and miserably painful for all involved, but there will not be a “crash” defined as a 35% plunge or greater in a single year.

To understand my view, we first need to discuss corporate debt.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Defiant Catalans Block Spain’s Military Boats From Landing; Spain Seizes “.CAT” Domain

pt., 22/09/2017 - 19:57

Spain’s plan to send boatloads of military police to Catalonia to prevent its independence referendum have backfired with dockers in two ports staging a boycott and a third refusing access.

The Express writes Police boats Blocked by Catalan ports as unrest threatens to Rip Spain Apart.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Catalonia President: “We Will Vote on Independence Whether Spain Likes it or Not”

pt., 22/09/2017 - 18:38

Thousands have gathered at the gates of Catalonia’s judiciary body to demand the release of a dozen officials arrested in connection with an upcoming vote on independence.

And a defiant Catalonia president wrote a nice op-ed in the Washington Post today: Sorry, Spain. Catalonia is voting on independence whether you like it or not.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Monetary Schizophrenia: “Citizens’ Rage will be Directed Where it Belongs (At Central Bank)

pt., 22/09/2017 - 08:08

Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards discusses “Monetary Schizophrenia” in his latest email alert. Here are a few interesting snips.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Stupidity Well Anchored: Absurdity of Inflation Expectations in Graphic Form

pt., 22/09/2017 - 01:00

The amount of sheer nonsense written about inflation expectations is staggering.

Let’s take a look at some recent articles before making a mockery of them with a single picture.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Watershed Moment – Spain to Send in Troops on Cruise Liners: Catalonia President Says Vote Will Go On

czw., 21/09/2017 - 21:08

Bloomberg reports Spain Hires Cruise Liner to House Police in Rebel Catalonia.

Catalonia president Carles Puigdemont responded that the Spanish government actions are ‘beyond the limits of a respectable democracy’ but vote will go ahead. Will it?

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Yield Curve Flattens Dramatically, Looking Quite Recessionary

czw., 21/09/2017 - 18:34

Curve Watchers Anonymous has been watching the yield curve flatten for months on end.

The flattening is taking shape in an unusual manner, with yields at the long end of the curve generally declining and yields at the short end of the curve rising.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Rate Hike Cycles, Gold, and the “Rule of Total Morons”

czw., 21/09/2017 - 09:35

In response to Janet Yellen’s everything is OK speech following today’s balance sheet reduction notice by the FOMC committee, I received an interesting set of comments from Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog regarding rate hike cycles, gold, and stock market peaks.

“Rule of Total Morons”

A new bull market in gold started in late 2015 concurrently with the Fed’s first rate hike. That is no coincidence. The gold market is highly sensitive to future changes in liquidity. The more tightening moves the Fed undertakes (which it does in the face of collapsing money supply growth, because its decisions are based on lagging economic indicators), the more gold bullish and the more stock market bearish the fundamental backdrop becomes. Anyone long stocks should actually ask himself how it is possible that gold is up nearly 30% from its low, despite an ostensibly “gold bearish” rate hike cycle.

But they never do ask the right questions, which is why stocks peak with a big lag, particularly in major bubbles. Economic historians found out that the economy was technically very likely already in recession when the stock market peaked in 1929. In the 2007 to 2009 bust, NBER backdated the beginning of the recession to December 2007, but in May of 2008 Bernanke was still talking about how well the economy was doing and how the high oil price was “creating inflation” (thereafter he began to shut up about all that, but not before demonstrating for everyone to see how utterly clueless he was). And of course, stocks peaked in October of 2007, practically two seconds before the economy fell into recession.

In bubble regimes, the final stage is always characterized by the “rule of total morons”. That’s just how it is.

Missing Inflation

Central banks cannot see inflation because they are totally clueless how to measure it: Central Banks Puzzled as Global Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2009: Solving the Puzzle

How Much Gold Should the Common Man Own?

Understanding Bubbles

If you wish to understand the nature of the bubbles we are in, a few recent articles of mine will help.

  1. Bubblicious Debate: Greenspan Says “Bond Bubble About to Break”, No Stock Market Bubble
  2. Median Price-to-Revenue Ratio Higher in All Deciles vs 2007, 90% vs Dot-Com Bubble: THE Choice
  3. Debunking MMT, Keynesianism, Monetarism: Reader asks “What theories do you believe?” Mish Reading List

Gold vs. Faith in Central Banks

The above chart also shows the bottom in gold right as the Fed started hiking, in agreement with the analysis of Tenebrarum.

For additional images, please see my 38 slide powerpoint Venture Alliance Presentation on trends in sentiment, asset bubbles, and gold from June 24, 2017.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Students Stand Against Hate Speech: “With Physical Violence If Necessary”

śr., 20/09/2017 - 23:30

A Brookings Study of college students views on the first amendment right of free speech shows some shocking trends.

Only 31% of female college students believe in the constitutional right to free speech.

62% of Democrats think it is OK to shout down speakers.

30% of male students believe violence is an acceptable response by student groups.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Balance Sheet Reduction Starts October: Like “Watching Paint Dry”

śr., 20/09/2017 - 21:49

As expected the Fed will begin balance sheet reduction in October. The Fed penned in one more rate hike in December as its FOMC statement shows the hurricanes will have no lasting effect on anything.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

In Wake of Slumping Car Sales, Ford Will Idle 5 North American Plants: What? No Hurricane Bounce?

śr., 20/09/2017 - 07:14

As initially reported by the Census Department, motor vehicle sales were 1.2% in July following a 0.9% gain in June. At the time, I commented, “This is unbelievably bizarre in the face of actual auto sales reports.”

The Census Bureau revised sales estimates much lower in September as noted in Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline, Huge Negative Revisions in June and July: Reflections on “Bizarre” Sales Reports.

Today we learn Ford to cut production at five North American vehicle plants due to rising inventory and slumping sales.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Hypocrites All Around as Senate Republicans Reach a Budget Deal

śr., 20/09/2017 - 04:24

Senators Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) and Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) reached a mutual agreement to set parameters for a tax overhaul.

If you think the deal will do anything about the deficit, you are mistaken.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Climate Change Hysteria in Tucson

śr., 20/09/2017 - 00:00

This morning, I received an interesting email regarding a letter that someone sent to the Arizona Daily Star on climate change and how it may affect Tuscon. The letter is a hoot and so is the response from reader Craig.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Spanish Government Fearmongering: “Catalonia Faces Brutal Impoverishment If Leave Wins”

wt., 19/09/2017 - 20:41

On October 1, Catalans head to the polls to vote yes or no on separation from Spain.

The Spanish government and constitutional court claim the referendum is illegal but 700 Catalonia mayors say the vote will take place.

Today Madrid launched a major fearmongering campaign: Catalonia Faces ‘Brutal’ Impoverishment If It Leave, Spain Warns.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy


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