Jak odnieść sukces inwestując w aktywa materialne, z dala od tłumów, mediów i zgiełku.
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nuggets of financial self-defence
MishTalk
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Zaktualizowano: 1 dzień 12 godzin temu

Illinois Needs Bankruptcy Reform In Puerto Rico Placed in Bankruptcy Protection: Illinois Needs Similar Deal (and many times prior), I listed things Illinois needs to do.; Berwyn, Cicero and Peoria Worse Per Capita: High Taxes #1 Reason

sob., 27/05/2017 - 02:15

Illinoisans continue their exodus, with Chicago having the dubious distinction of the highest population loss in the nation.

High taxes are the number one reason people and businesses leave the state.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

pt., 26/05/2017 - 22:06

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

April Durable Goods: Yet Another Weak Second-Quarter Report

pt., 26/05/2017 - 19:11

The string of bad economic reports at the start of the second quarter continues with today’s durable goods report.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

First Quarter GDP Second Estimate 1.2 Percent: Mish vs. Consensus

pt., 26/05/2017 - 17:20

This morning, the BEA revised its estimate of first-quarter GDP to 1.2% from 0.7%. The Econoday consensus estimate was 0.8%, in a range of 0.7% to 1.0%.

I posted this tweet ahead of the report. (more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Fed Eyes Second Quarter Recovery, Expects Trump Fiscal Policy Will Expand Economy

czw., 25/05/2017 - 18:34

Data supporting the second quarter recovery thesis is nonexistent. Four out of four of the recent hard data economic reports have been negative.

Soft data diffusion indexes do not look so hot either.

Earlier today the Census Bureau reported the trade deficit widened. The same report shows retail and wholesale inventories declined by 0.3% each.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Trade Deficit Widens, Exports Weak: Economists Miss the Mark

czw., 25/05/2017 - 17:21

The Census Bureau reports the International Trade Deficit in Goods widened by $2.5 billion (3.8 percent), with exports down and imports up.

This will subtract from second-quarter GDP estimates.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Is the Manufacturing Growth Slowdown No Longer Welcome? Already?

czw., 25/05/2017 - 00:16

On May 15, the Empire State manufacturing report kicked off the start of monthly regional Fed manufacturing reports with a composite reading of -1.0 vs an Econoday consensus expectation of 8.0.

Econoday called the Empire State slowdown “welcome news”. It feared manufacturing was overheating.

Yesterday, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged from 20 to 1. The Econoday consensus estimate was 15 in a range of 13 to 18. (more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Federal Receipts Running Below Expectations: Treasury Seeks “Clean” Debt Ceiling Increase (Removed)

śr., 24/05/2017 - 21:42

In yet another sign of a slowing economy, US federal receipts are running below expectations.

As a result, the need to bump up the debt ceiling will come sooner than expected.

Given Republican budget fights and threats in the Obama years, one of them resulting in a partial government shutdown, it will be interesting to see their stance now that Trump is president. (more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Spring Housing Flop: Existing Home Sales Decline 2.3 Percent, Inventory Issues Persist

śr., 24/05/2017 - 17:44

The widely expected Spring housing acceleration has turned into a big flop.

Yesterday, the Census Bureau reported new home sales declined 11.4% in April.

Today, the National  Association of Realtors (NAR) reports existing home sales declined 2.3%.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

3% Growth? Really?!

wt., 23/05/2017 - 23:40

In Trump Plans to Slash Spending by $3.6 Trillion, Increase Military Spending, Balance the Budget in 10 Years I gave my three primary reasons 3% growth will be extremely difficult to achieve.

Greg Ip, my favorite Wall Steet Journal commentator, also provides a set of reasons why Trump’s 3% Growth Target Looks Out of Reach.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Trump Plans to Slash Spending by $3.6 Trillion, Increase Military Spending, Balance the Budget in 10 Years

wt., 23/05/2017 - 20:11

In a budget that provides insight into Trump’s thinking but is highly unlikely to make it through Congress, Trump Seeks to Slash $3.6 Trillion of Government Spending in Budget.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

New Home Sales Contract 11.4%: Sales Barely Up Year-Over-Year

wt., 23/05/2017 - 19:07

Housing momentum took an 11.4% dive in April to 565,000 seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR) units. The Econoday consensus estimate of 602,000 units missed the mark badly, but there was an upward revision in March.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Greek Debt Groundhog Day: Deal Collapses After 8 Hours of Negotiation

wt., 23/05/2017 - 07:34

Yet another Greek debt cliffhanger is in the works.

After eight hours of intense negotiations, Greece, EU creditors, and the IMF did not reach agreement on restructuring Greek Debt.

However, a big debt repayment does not come until July so negotiations will drag on and on. In the past, there was always a last minute deal. Will it be any different this time?
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Catalonia Threatens Immediate Declaration of Independence if Spain Doesn’t Approve Referendum

pon., 22/05/2017 - 21:00

The constitutional crisis in Spain may be coming to a head quickly according to a leaked document on a “Secret Law for Catalonia Independence” as reported by El Pais.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Voters Smack Spain’s Political Leadership: Snap Spanish Presidential Elections Coming Up?

pon., 22/05/2017 - 17:40

Last year, the socialist party (PSOE) leadership ousted Pedro Sánchez as its head when Sánchez refused to allow a minority government of Mariano Rajoy to form. Susana Díaz took over as party head.

Socialist party elections were held yesterday. Sánchez ran again as an outsider and shocked the POSE leadership winning an outright majority of votes in a three-way race. This was a clear smack in the face to the party leadership who backed Susana Díaz.

With Sánchez back at the helm in Parliament, Rajoy has little chance of getting his legislation passed. Rajoy now has his eye on calling snap elections.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Ford Replaces CEO with Head of Driverless Division: 2021 Not Fast Enough

pon., 22/05/2017 - 07:22

The New York Times reports Ford dumped CEO Mark Fields for Jim Hackett, the head of Ford mobility and driverless vehicles. Fields was not moving fast enough on autonomous vehicles and electric power.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

EU Shocked to Discover UK May Walk Away With No Deal

nie., 21/05/2017 - 23:00

The EU now faces the shocking discovery that the UK is not Greece, the EU does not hold all the cards, and the UK is able and willing to simply walk away from ever-escalating EU demands.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Self-Driving Vehicles and the Failure to Understand Capitalism

nie., 21/05/2017 - 18:49

Despite accelerating progress towards fully autonomous cars and trucks, many people still do not accept the obvious fact it’s going to happen soon.

For example, in response to Death Spiral for Car Ownership? End of Fuel-Powered Cars by 2024? one reader suggested it will not happen because of capitalism.

(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Trump Hands Saudi Arabia Largest Arms Deal in History, Saudi King Awards Trump Medal

sob., 20/05/2017 - 19:08

In return for Trump signing a $350 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, king Salman awarded Trump its highest civilian honor: the King Abdulaziz al Saud Collar and medal.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Congratulations to Iran: Pro-West Rouhani Scores Landslide Victory for Reformists

sob., 20/05/2017 - 16:38

There is welcome news in Iran today as Hassan Rouhani Wins Landslide Victory in Iran over hardline religious conservative Ebrahim Raisi.
(more…)

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

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