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nuggets of financial self-defence
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Zaktualizowano: 1 dzień 13 godzin temu

Crazy Fed Cartoons from 1912 vs Today

czw., 20/07/2017 - 04:43

Inquiring minds may be wondering what economic cartoons from 1912 looked like. I can help.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Dear President Trump: Do You Ever Have to Make Up Your Mind?

śr., 19/07/2017 - 20:33

After cleverly changing the Meaning of Always to a matter of hours, President Trump is making fine use of his new definition.

For the third time in three days, he has changed his stance on Obamacare.

Instead of letting Obamacare fail as he proclaimed yesterday, Trump Now Asks Congress to Stay in Session until they get something done.

Here is the sequence of events.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Housing Starts and Permits Rise First Time in Four Months: Analyzing the 2nd Quarter GDP Effect

śr., 19/07/2017 - 15:44

Housing starts and permits both rose in June for the first time in four months according to the Census Bureau’s  New Residential Construction Report.

Starts rose 8.3%, with single family units up 6.%. Permits rose 7.4%, with single family permits up 4.1%.

The quarter ends on a positive note but the overall pace is lower than in the first quarter.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Mighty Dollar: Economist Contrarian Cover Nails the Top

śr., 19/07/2017 - 09:56

Magazine covers tend to coincide with extreme sentiment. The Economist is particularly good at offering contrarian articles.

In December of 2016, The Economist nailed the peak in the US dollar with its “Mighty Dollar” issue.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Greece Brain Drain: 33 Percent of Unemployed Looking for Jobs Abroad vs 11 Percent in 2015

śr., 19/07/2017 - 00:28

The  Unemployment Rate in Greece is down to 21.7% in April from a record 27.9% in July of 2013 and a record low of 7.3% in May of 2008.

Despite the falling rate, the percentage of those unemployed seeking jobs abroad has risen from 11% in 2015 to 33% this year.

The message seems to be “get me the hell out of here”.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Trump’s Useless Proclamation Plus a New Definition of “Always”

wt., 18/07/2017 - 21:08

Today I award President Trump the blue ribbon for useless proclamations. The award is for his statement “My Plan now is to let Obamacare Fail.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Import Prices Dip as Expected, Export Prices Unexpectedly Dip: GDP and Forex Analysis

wt., 18/07/2017 - 19:50

The BLS’ Import and Export Price Report for June shows Import and Exports prices both declined 0.2% from May. Econoday economists called import prices correctly but expected export prices would be flat.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Another Reason Men Don’t Work: Imaginary World More Enjoyable than the Real World

pon., 17/07/2017 - 23:39

President Trump, like President Obama before him, point out the low unemployment rate as a measure of success.

What they don’t point out are masses of people on welfare via fraudulent disabilities, people in school wasting money in dead-end retraining exercises, people who have simply given up looking for a job, and people in forced retirement needing Social Security payments to survive.

A team of researchers from Princeton, the University of Chicago, and the University of Rochester discusses another class of individuals who are not working but are not counted as unemployed: People, primarily young men who are addicted to games. For such individuals, games provide a fantasy world that is far more enjoyable than the real world.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Toronto Home Prices Sink Most on Record: Did the Bubble Just Burst?

pon., 17/07/2017 - 20:26

The three-month average home price in the Toronto area is down a record 14.2% following a flood of new listings and an interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada.

Sales fell most in eight years. Did Canada’s housing bubble just burst?

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Empire State Manufacturing: Another Strong Regional Report Bearing Little Resemblance to Reality

pon., 17/07/2017 - 19:28

I have not commented on the regional manufacturing reports much lately because they bear no resemblance to reality.

Setting reality aside, let’s take a look at the Empire State Survey which kicks off another month of regional surveys.

The Econoday consensus estimate for the Empire State region diffusion index was 15. The actual report was +9.8. Econoday praised this meaningless report as welcome.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Growing Number of Companies Complain About Inability to Find Workers: So Why is Wage Growth So Low?

pon., 17/07/2017 - 08:03

Since 2010, the highest year-over-year wage increase in any month for production and nonsupervisory employees is near 2.6%.

For a two-year stretch between summer of 2011 and summer of 2013 wage increases less than 2% were the norm.

Yet, firms complain about labor costs while simultaneously complaining about the lack of workers.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

“Bargain” $2 Million Homes in Australia: “Super Saturday” Auction Results Posted

nie., 16/07/2017 - 19:57

Home supply in Australia is up with the number of bidders down. Supposedly this puts prices in the bargain range.

For example, you could buy any of the following beauties for $2 million or so, a ‘Bargain’ on Real Estate’s ‘Super Saturday’.

That auction took place yesterday. Today, the results are posted. First, let’s investigate some asking prices.

Basically, Back to Normal

Several houses up for sale this weekend required major renovations were selling for around $1.7m.

Real Estate Institute of NSW president John Cunningham said buyers could compete for homes this weekend with the pressure easing.

Properties with features buyers tend not to like – like being south-facing, on a busy road or having lots of steps – are taking longer to sell and at lower prices,” Mr. Cunningham said.

While these houses are still not cheap, they have major potential.

“This is basically the market just returning to normal.”

Auction Results

The Auction results are in, by region. The article pertained to Sydney and those results are in the NSW region.

I did not track down all the listings in the article.

However, I am pleased to report the 14 Abbots for Road property was sold at auction for the bargain price of $2,320,000.

Let’s see what $2,320,000 buys.

The article describes this fine property.

This crumbling Federation- style house at 14 Abbotsford Street, Homebush comes at a hefty bidder’s guide of $2.1m and plenty of caved-in ceilings. The four-bedroom property is riddled with cracks and parts of the ceiling indicate major leaks in the roof. Selling agent Ben Horwood of LJ Hooker at Concord said he expected three buyers to register bids. This compares with the market a year ago when houses in similar condition were attracting up to ten bidders.

The home went for only $120,000 over the asking price with three people in the bidding war instead of a presumed 10 who may have bid last year.

Yes indeed. Normality has returned to Australia. This all looks very “normal” to me.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

California Ponders $3 Billion Subsidy for Electric Cars: All-Electric Europe by 2035, Worldwide by 2040?

nie., 16/07/2017 - 02:30

Currently, less than 3% of California vehicle sales are electric.

Assemblyman Phil Ting, a San Francisco Democrat, thinks that is not enough.

To induce drivers to purchase electric vehicles, California Considers a $3 Billion Electric-Car Rebate Push sponsored by Ting.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

The Way Chicago “Works”: Graft, Corruption, Political Connections, Bribes, Unions

sob., 15/07/2017 - 20:20

Those who wish to understand how things work in Chicago need read a single article that ties everything together: Teamsters boss indicted on charges of extorting $100,000 from a local business.

A politically connected Teamsters union boss was indicted Wednesday on federal charges alleging he extorted $100,000 in cash from a local business.

John Coli Sr., considered one the union’s most powerful figures nationally, was charged with threatening work stoppages and other labor unrest unless he was given cash payoffs of $25,000 every three months by the undisclosed business.

The alleged extortion occurred when Coli was president of Teamsters Joint Council 25, a labor organization that represents more than 100,000 workers in the Chicago area and northwest Indiana.

Coli, 57, an early backer of Mayor Rahm Emanuel, was charged with one count of attempted extortion and five counts of demanding and accepting prohibited payment as a union official.

Coli could not be reached for comment, but a statement posted Wednesday on the Teamsters Local 727 website announced he planned to retire at the end of the month after 46 years in the union.

In the statement, Coli said he had decided it was time “to begin a new chapter” and that he wanted to spend more time with his family.

The Coli family has been active in politics for years and is well-known for spreading around union cash to various candidates. Coli and his relatives have also been accused in civil lawsuits in both state and federal court of running the union like a racket — accusations they have vehemently denied.

In a 2011 deposition stemming from one suit, Coli was asked under oath why so many of his relatives were allowed to control the union’s lucrative pension funds. “For the record, go f— yourself,” Coli answered, according to a transcript in court records.

“So I take it you’re refusing to answer that question?” the plaintiff’s attorney asked. “I think the answer speaks for itself,” the transcript quoted Coli as saying.

Coli backed Emanuel in his first run for mayor at a time when Emanuel, viewed as a centrist Democrat, had very little union backing.

The Teamsters contributed $35,000 to Emanuel’s 2011 campaign, including $15,000 for polling. The union stepped up even more to back the mayor’s bid for a second term, contributing $134,700, state campaign finance records show.

Once Emanuel was elected, a representative from the union was appointed to the mayoral transition team, and Coli was named to the exclusive group of campaign donors and community leaders in charge of planning the mayor’s first inaugural.

Two months after Emanuel first took office, the Chicago Tribune detailed how the newly elected mayor had demanded greater accountability and financial sacrifice from Chicago’s labor unions — except for the Teamsters.

In 2003, then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich appointed Coli to the Illinois Tollway board, only to have Coli quickly withdraw his name amid questions about $100,000 in Teamsters campaign contributions to Blagojevich and potential conflicts of interest.

Within a few months, Blagojevich quietly named Coli to two other state boards with less direct impact on Teamsters affairs, the Tribune reported.

In 2005, the Tribune reported the FBI was investigating whether the Coli-led Teamsters siphoned hundreds of thousands of dollars from a union benefit plan that provided dental care to Chicago-area undertakers and valets. That probe had been sparked by an internal union report raising concerns about payments from the plan going to organized crime figures.

No charges were ever filed.

Illinois Governors in Prison

Former governor Rod Blagojevich is now in prison for a 14-year sentence.

He was found guilty of 18 counts of corruption, including attempting to sell or trade an appointment to a vacant seat in the U.S. Senate.

He faces another eight years in prison after an appeals court upheld the sentence in April of this year.

No other state can match this claim: 4 OUT OF PREVIOUS 7 ILLINOIS GOVERNORS WENT TO PRISON

The way Chicago “works” is the same way Illinois “works”. Corrupt politicians get in bed with corrupt union leaders and screw the taxpayers and businesses as much as they can.

Sometimes they get caught.

Teamster boss Coli just got caught after all these years of extortion. His deals with Mayor Emanuel screwed Chicago taxpayers. Emanuel promised reforms and transparency but reforms and transparency stop once campaign donations are sufficient enough.

Coli said he is retiring to spend more time with “family”. Unless he gets off the hooks, that family must mean his mafia brothers and sisters in prison.

The City That Works

Chicago is nicknamed the “City that Works“.

I was wondering how it got that name. It took some doing, not by me but rather by the Straight Dope for the answer.

The April 5, 1971 issue of Newsweek featured Richard J. Daley on the cover, and inside, spread across two pages, a photo of Daley and his entourage marching eleven abreast on St. Patrick’s Day. Admittedly the headline below this read, “Chicago’s Daley: How to Run a City.” Adjacent to the headline, immediately beneath the photo, the text of the article read as follows:

This is not to suggest, reports Newsweek correspondent Frank Maier, that Daley’s Chicago enraptures every resident or inspires every visitor to leave his heart behind. But it is a demonstrable fact that Chicago is that most wondrous of exceptions — a major American city that actually works.”

The last bit was repeated in an editor’s note at the front of the magazine. Beyond a doubt this article was the vehicle by which “the city that [actually] works” entered common currency. The phrase began turning up in Chicago newspapers by 1972, first appeared in the Washington Post in 1974 and in the New York Times in 1975, and figured in the lead of obituaries nationwide following Daley’s death in 1976.

If by some chance you previously did not know how Chicago and the entire state “works”, now you do.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Inventories Bounce, Led by Autos: Inventories Adding To GDP?

sob., 15/07/2017 - 02:40

Adding to silly Commerce Department reporting of “auto sales”, today we learn business inventories were up 0.3%, led by autos up 1.1%. The rise in inventories matched the Econoday consensus estimate.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

BLS Reports Net Negative Inflation for 5 Months: Anyone Believe That?

pt., 14/07/2017 - 21:08

Today the BLS reported the CPI was flat. The Econoday consensus was for a 0.1% rise.

Over the last five months, the CPI is -0.1%. Over the last four months, the CPI is -0.2%.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Industrial Production Growing, Manufacturing Inching Along

pt., 14/07/2017 - 18:43

The Fed G17 report shows Industrial Production is up 0.4% this month, but the manufacturing component weighted at about three-fourths of the total has been barely growing for some time.

The Fed revised May from flat to +0.1 and April from +1.1 to +0.8.

The Econoday consensus was for 0.3% growth.

Mining is once again the highlight of an otherwise soft industrial production report. Gaining 1.6 percent for a third straight sharp increase, mining pulled industrial production up 0.4 percent in June as utilities posted no change and manufacturing managed an as-expected 0.2 percent gain.

Manufacturing makes up the vast bulk of the industrial sector and a breakdown does show strength with vehicles up 0.7 percent and selected hi-tech up 0.8 percent. But both consumer goods and business equipment came in flat with construction supplies down slightly.

The gain for manufacturing follows May’s 0.4 percent decline with a 1.0 percent surge in April nearly offset by March’s 0.8 percent plunge. The factory sector is moving forward, just not very fast. Today’s report is the first definitive factory data for June; watch next week for the first tentative data on May [I believe Econoday means July] with Empire State on Monday and Philly Fed on Thursday. Note that traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from NAICS basis figures.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing production is below the 2005-2007 level and barely above the 1999 level.

2016 Weightings

  • Manufacturing: 76.46%
  • Mining: 12.91%
  • Utilities: 10.64%

Curiously, motor vehicles and parts account for only 5.77% of the total but account for nearly 20% of retail sales.

Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog pinged me this with this comment “The bulk of industrial production consists of intermediary goods, so it is not so surprising that cars only account for less than 6% of IP but 20% of retail sales.”

Reader Comment

Reader ucanbpolitical writes: “Mish, no doubt you will be commenting shortly on the extraordinary figures for industrial production. A quick, back of the envelope calculation, makes it hard to square retail sales with imports/exports, inventory and industrial production. Since December 2016 industrial production rose 1.3% but factoring in real net exports, real retail sale growth which is nonexistent and Nowcast’s estimation of inventory growth, the figures do not reconcile. There is no scope for the growth in industrial production announced over the last 6 months. Perhaps you can reconcile these figures.”

I agree that many of these numbers do not reconcile. Auto sales are a standout. Supposedly auto sales were up 0.1% in June, 0.9% in May, and 0.5% in April.

Today we also learned auto inventories were up 1.1% in May. This miracle is happening despite monthly auto sales reports that have been miserable.

So no, I cannot reconcile these numbers. And my preliminary guess for second quarter GDP (call it 1.0% after today’s reports) is way lower than any numbers I have seen. Inventory is a wildcard.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Sink 2nd Month: Supposedly Car Sales Rise 3rd Month

pt., 14/07/2017 - 17:43

The consumer has all but thrown in the towel as retail sales unexpectedly declined for the second month.

The Econoday consensus was for a weak bounce to +0.1% but sales came in at -0.2%.

Revisions did take May from -0.3% to -0.1% so sales were essentially flat for the last two months.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Lose Lose Lose Affair: Farm Lobby Turns Up Heat on Trump Over NAFTA

pt., 14/07/2017 - 08:10

If Trump decides to stick it to Mexico in the upcoming NAFTA talks, US farming industry will take a hit. In advance of the talks, the Farm Lobby is Pressuring Trump.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy

Metro Area Unemployment: Which States Are in Reverse? Spotlight Illinois

czw., 13/07/2017 - 21:12

The US unemployment rate is 4.4% but unemployment varies widely among the nation’s 388 metro areas.

Let’s check out the winners and losers as noted by the Brooking Institute in its report Metro area unemployment trends buck the national narrative: A story of convergence, not divergence.

Kategorie: Najnowsze feedy


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